Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.447682 2.604231 2.770651 2.961594 3.175702 3.409663 3.686426
2025-03-16 2.215500 2.427891 2.665531 2.954106 3.299252 3.704447 4.224966
2025-03-23 2.087392 2.335592 2.623683 2.988641 3.447631 4.019045 4.807565
2025-03-30 1.955581 2.220158 2.535351 2.947147 3.485009 4.186107 5.212286
2025-04-06 1.848101 2.122532 2.456368 2.903700 3.506887 4.325186 5.588615
2025-04-13 1.743706 2.020232 2.362019 2.829088 3.474993 4.380202 5.842272
2025-04-20 1.696625 1.985701 2.349709 2.858869 3.584835 4.644218 6.457896
2025-04-27 1.664709 1.967584 2.355968 2.911967 3.729761 4.974827 7.246937
2025-05-04 1.634432 1.949131 2.359459 2.959700 3.869119 5.312528 8.125518
2025-05-11 1.581811 1.898127 2.315401 2.935230 3.894648 5.465155 8.685484
2025-05-18 1.535319 1.852959 2.276551 2.914907 3.923416 5.624797 9.297899
2025-05-25 1.490486 1.807960 2.235407 2.887909 3.938014 5.759560 9.890905
2025-06-01 1.449069 1.766666 2.198433 2.866229 3.961679 5.918456 10.602586
2025-06-08 1.415819 1.735280 2.173998 2.862011 4.013983 6.138942 11.549037
2025-06-15 1.395940 1.721476 2.173860 2.895028 4.132613 6.507799 13.058303
2025-06-22 1.356784 1.679078 2.130006 2.855708 4.119204 6.602521 13.804566
2025-06-29 1.319511 1.638092 2.086550 2.814490 4.098711 6.679084 14.533173
2025-07-06 1.276225 1.587283 2.026723 2.743653 4.018431 6.614173 14.755653
2025-07-13 1.261900 1.577364 2.027408 2.771935 4.124986 6.985779 16.788304
2025-07-20 1.254037 1.576318 2.041144 2.822335 4.278083 7.496232 19.836416
2025-07-27 1.245152 1.573365 2.051651 2.867615 4.425597 8.026704 23.634577
2025-08-03 1.220168 1.546020 2.023436 2.844406 4.432510 8.194173 25.717892
2025-08-10 1.197304 1.521169 1.998231 2.825125 4.445860 8.382496 28.213527